OPEC, Russia Dash Hopes Of Higher Oil Production

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Notably, Brent crude just made a new high for the year, while WTI has jumped above its short-term high of $71.38.

Delegates from major oil-producing nations have agreed to continue working to boost output.

Fresh bullish signal was generated on today's rally through important resistance at $81.84 (Fibo 61.8% of $115.68/$27.09, 2014/2016 fall), with daily close above needed to confirm signal and open way for further advance.

The International Energy Agency forecast strong oil demand growth of 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) this year and 1.5 million bpd in 2019, and said in its most recent report that the market was tightening.

Interested in Oil technicals? Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United Arab Emirates insisted they had the spare capacity to satisfy the market's needs, but wouldn't tap it preemptively. "In my view, that makes it conceivable to see a price spike north of US$100 a barrel". And while output C-OUT-T-EIA remains around the record of 11 million barrels per day (bpd), recent subdued USA drilling activity points towards a slowdown.

Benchmark Brent oil reached $80 a barrel this month, prompting Trump to reiterate on Thursday his demand that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lower prices. The Saudis, it is said, are not comfortable with the fact that Brent crude is more than $80, because Trump will be upset about such a development. Saudi Arabia's oil minister Khalid al Falih said that "I can not speak to prices because I do not directly influence prices".

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The supply picture is looking increasingly worrying, with Venezuela and Iran the two principal factors driving up oil prices in the fourth quarter.

A committee comprised of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel and non-OPEC producers said it was satisfied with the current market outlook, which represented "an overall healthy balance between supply and demand".

Trump first blamed OPEC for rising oil prices in April. Gasoline prices in Japan are at their highest level in 3 years and 9 months.

Commodity traders Trafigura and Mercuria said on Monday that Brent could rise to $90 per barrel by Christmas and pass $100 in early 2019, as markets tighten once US sanctions against Iran are fully implemented from November. In order to meet global crude demand growth, nearly $11 trillion of investment will be needed across the industry to 2040, the producer group said.

Francisco Blanch, head of commodities research at Bank of America Corp., said in a note to clients on Monday that signals from OPEC mean "the likelihood of an oil spike and crash scenario akin to the one observed in 2008 has increased".

"If an increase in production is proposed there will be plenty of market counter-argument that it reduces even further the available spare capacity", Olivier Jakob from consultancy Petromatrix said.

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