Mr Trump used Twitter to accuse the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries of being "at it again", in a fresh verbal attack on the cartel which he blames for the faster than expected oil price recovery. Crude oil output was nonetheless down 610,000 bpd on 2017 due to Venezuela's sharp decline.
Then there was a report that a day before President Trump pulled the United States out of the Iran deal, a senior official of the Trump Administration phoned Saudi Arabia to ask it to help keep oil prices stable should the us decision on Iran disrupt oil supply, Reuters reported last week.
Brent crude was up 53 cents at $76.41 a barrel by 10:52 a.m. EDT (1552 GMT). US light crude was up 10 cents at $66.46 a barrel.
US production of oil came in at 10.9 million barrels per day last week, according to data released Wednesday by the US Energy Information Administration, up almost 17 percent from the year-ago level. Crude inventories fell by 4.1 million barrels in the week to June 8, exceeding analysts' expectations for a decrease of 2.7 million barrels. "Put the exports of crude on top of that, and it's just a really bullish report". Russia's production was 11.1 million barrels a day in June, exceeding its quota, according to sources familiar with the matter. "It seems like we need nearly every barrel of that to keep up with this refining demand".
"To make up for the losses, we estimate that Middle East OPEC countries could increase production in fairly short order by about 1.1 mb/d and there could be more output from Russian Federation on top of the increase already built into our 2019 non-OPEC supply numbers", the IEA said.
- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 20, 2018Bloomberg and Reuters reported last week that Trump requested that Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries members, such as Saudi Arabia, increase their oil production. Prices have risen around 60 percent over the past year.
On the discussion table was de-bottlenecking infrastructure to facilitate more US crude oil coming to Asia so as to cut the dominance of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which supplies about 60% of India's oil needs.
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While there are risks that could influence this estimate, including possibly higher prices, trade disruptions and a potential further strengthening of the USA dollar, the IEA said some governments are already considering measures to ease price pressures on consumers.
USA ally Saudi Arabia remains OPEC's most powerful member - with enough production capacity to manipulate global supplies. "Unofficial sources have said Russian Federation will propose to return production back to the October 2016 (level), i.e. removing the cap altogether over a period of three months".
Longer term, the market could tighten as demand increases if OPEC fails to cover supply shortfalls, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday.
For 2019, IEA's estimate of demand anticipates growth of 1.4 million barrels of oil per day, amid a boost from the petrochemicals sector, where some projects are coming on stream earlier than previously thought.
Pumped further by global trade war fears, oil prices have since surged to multi-year highs, only to then fall back again somewhat, the IEA said.
"Prices will be above $150 in less than two years", he tweeted on Wednesday.