While the producer group complied with a pledge to curb output and ease a glut in 2017, US flows that are gaining a bigger slice of the prized Asian market may prompt some nations to boost supplies, said Warren Patterson, a commodities strategist at the Dutch bank.
Oil prices gave up earlier gains on Monday as rising United States output loomed over markets, despite a slowdown in rig drilling activity.
Oil prices would have plunged even lower if OPEC and Russian Federation hadn't placed a restraint on production to avoid a glut or oversupply. "They continue to give market share away to the U.S".
Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $64.80 per barrel, down 15 cents, or 0.2 per cent. The West Texas Intermediate or WTI curd was trading at $61.25 a barrel, shedding a total of 11 cents or a total of 0.2% decline from its previous closing prices.
Crude's rebound since past year is encouraging American drillers to pump even as they make efforts to be disciplined on spending, Patterson said.
The split is driven by differing views over whether $70 a barrel would send USA shale companies into a production frenzy that could cause prices to crash.
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As American output continues to expand, more exports will sail to Asia, the traditional bastion of Middle East producers.
"The rapidly growing US shale production is making it virtually impossible for prices to rise", according to analysts at Commerzbank.
Traders are saying the early price action was related to a drop in the number U.S. rigs drilling for more production and Friday's robust U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, which could lead to increased demand. "In the shale plays, the expected April production will increase oil at the annual rate of 1.5 million" barrels a day. Asia is the biggest buyer of the supplies.
According to energy services firm Baker Hughes, U.S. energy companies last week cut oil rigs for the first time in nearly two months, with drillers cutting back four rigs, to 796.
Crude production from seven major US shale plays is expected to see a climb of 131,000 barrels a day in April to 6.954 million barrels a day, according to a monthly report from the Energy Information Administration released Monday (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/US-shale-oil-output-forecast-to-climb-by-131000-barrels-a-day-in-april-eia-2018-03-12).